4216 61 Ave SE - Investment Analysis |
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($ in CAD as Stated) |
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Lesson Notes: |
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Development Overview: |
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Units: |
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Units: |
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This model/case combines elements of the previous two and expands on them. We've already explained how leases, Vacancies, Expense Reimbursements, etc. |
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Project Name: |
Name |
4216 61 Ave SE |
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# Square Feet in 1 Acre: |
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sq. ft. |
43,560 sq. ft. |
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work, so we will move through those parts of it quite quickly. |
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Property Type: |
Name |
Industrial |
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Total Square Feet to Purchase: |
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sq. ft. |
784,080 sq. ft. |
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Percentage Required for Property: |
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% |
43.0% |
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Similarities to Previous Lessons: Still calculating revenue and expenses on a lease-by-lease basis, and still calculating IRR and multiples to different groups. |
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Location: |
Name |
Calgary |
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Gross Square Feet of Property: |
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sq. ft. |
337,154 sq. ft. |
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Property is still funded with Debt and Equity, and we still sell the entire property at the end. |
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Construction Start Date: |
Date |
2018-01-01 |
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Months in Year: |
# |
12 |
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Rentable to Gross Square Feet %: |
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% |
95.0% |
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Differences: "Construction period" of 1 year where the property is developed (industrial properties take little time - just 1-story warehouses with few frills or |
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Rentable Square Feet: |
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sq. ft. |
320,297 sq. ft. |
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fancy features). During this period, both Debt and Equity are used as they are needed - not issued all at once! |
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Number of Acres to Purchase: |
# Acres |
18.0 Acres |
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Estimated Price per Acre: |
$ / Acre |
$700,000 |
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Construction Costs per Gross SF: |
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$ / sq. ft. |
$50.00 |
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We also have a "lease-up period," where the new tenants start their leases at this brand-new building - some differences on the Pro-Forma. |
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Land Acquisition Costs: |
$ |
$12,600,000 |
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Total Construction Costs: |
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$ |
$16,857,720 |
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We also assume a Permanent Loan to refinance the Construction Loan, which is what happens in real life when the property stabilizes. |
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Saleable Excess Land Percentage: |
% |
57.0% |
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This refinancing will also affect the equity IRR because the property's value will change over time! |
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Sale of Excess Land will also affect the equity IRR - if we buy land but don't use it, we can sell it to someone else. |
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Construction, Financing, and Exit Assumptions: |
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Units: |
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Units: |
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Finally, we build more of a "real" waterfall schedule here, with multiple tiers and cash flow splits based on project-level returns. |
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Construction Financing: |
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Permanent Loan Refinancing & Exit: |
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Loan-to-Cost (LTC) Ratio: |
% |
50.0% |
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Loan-to-Value (LTV) Ratio: |
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% |
55.0% |
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We'll divide this 90-minute case study into 3 parts of roughly 20-30 minutes each and look at different aspects in each part. |
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Interest Rate - Annual: |
% |
6.25% |
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Interest Rate - Annual: |
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% |
4.75% |
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Interest Rate - Monthly: |
% |
0.506% |
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Part 1: Assumptions, Construction Phase, and Tenant Rent and Expenses |
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Issuance Fees: |
% |
1.00% |
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Issuance Fees: |
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% |
1.00% |
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Part 2: Property Pro-Forma, Permanent Loan Refinancing, Excess Land Sale, and Equity Returns |
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Amortization (Years): |
# Years |
Interest Only |
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Amortization (Years): |
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# Years |
30 |
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Part 3: Waterfall Returns and Case Study Answers |
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Maturity: |
Date |
2018-12-31 |
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Maturity: |
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Date |
2028-12-31 |
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Term: |
# Years |
1 year |
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Prepayment Penalty: |
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% |
1.00% |
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Refinancing Date: |
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Date |
2018-12-31 |
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Developer Equity Contribution: |
% |
10.0% |
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IRR Hurdle 1: |
% |
10.0% |
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Discount Rate: |
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BIWS:
Based on sponsor's targeted unleveraged IRR for new developments.
15.0% |
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Developer Cash Flow Above IRR Hurdle 1: |
% |
20.0% |
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Property Value 1 Year After Refi.: |
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$ |
BIWS:
Using the Year 2 number because Year 1 includes Absorption & Turnover Vacancy, and 30% of the space is vacant in Year 1.
$32,969,370 |
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IRR Hurdle 2: |
% |
20.0% |
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Property Value @ Refinancing: |
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$ |
BIWS:
Discounting to its value at the end of the Construction Year, i.e. one year back.
28,669,018 |
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Developer Cash Flow Above IRR Hurdle 2: |
% |
30.0% |
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Permanent Loan Amount: |
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$ |
15,767,960 |
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Property Selling Costs: |
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% |
1.50% |
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Sources & Uses of Funds: |
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Sources of Funds: |
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Uses of Funds: |
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Construction Loan: |
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$15,028,860 |
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Land Acquisition Costs: |
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$12,600,000 |
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Developer Equity: |
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1,502,886 |
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Construction Costs: |
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16,857,720 |
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Investor Equity: |
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13,525,974 |
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Replacement Reserves: |
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600,000 |
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Total Sources: |
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$30,057,720 |
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Total Uses: |
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$30,057,720 |
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Construction: |
Operational Years: |
Stabilized: |
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Rent Roll & Operating Assumptions: |
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Units: |
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FY18 |
FY19 |
FY20 |
FY21 |
FY22 |
FY23 |
FY24 |
FY25 |
FY26 |
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Property-Wide Operating Assumptions: |
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Expenses & Taxes per SF per Year: |
$ / sq. ft. / Yr |
2.35 |
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Expenses & Taxes Annual Growth Rate: |
% |
3.0% |
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Property Management Fees % EGI: |
% |
3.0% |
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Replacement Reserves per SF per Year: |
$ / sq. ft. / Yr |
$0.30 |
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Replacement Reserve Growth Rate: |
% |
3.0% |
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New Lease Term (Years): |
# Years |
5 |
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Renewal Probability: |
% |
60.0% |
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# Months of Downtime for Non-Renewal: |
# |
6 |
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Free Rent and Capital Costs: |
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New: |
Renewal: |
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# Months of Free Rent: |
# |
4 |
2 |
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Tenant Improvements (TIs) per RSF: |
$ / sq. ft. / Yr |
$1.50 |
1.00 |
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Leasing Commissions (LCs) % Total Lease Value: |
% |
3.0% |
1.0% |
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Tenant #1 - Triple Net (NNN) Lease: |
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% Rentable Square Feet Occupied: |
% |
65.0% |
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Rentable Square Feet Occupied: |
sq. ft. |
208,193 sq. ft. |
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Lease Start Date: |
Date |
2018-12-31 |
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Lease Expiration Date: |
Date |
2022-12-31 |
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Baseline Rent per Square Foot: |
$ / sq. ft. / Yr |
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$7.50 |
$7.73 |
$7.96 |
$8.20 |
$8.44 |
$8.69 |
$8.96 |
$9.22 |
$9.50 |
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Rental Growth Rate: |
% |
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3.0% |
3.0% |
3.0% |
3.0% |
3.0% |
3.0% |
3.0% |
3.0% |
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(+) Base Rental Income: |
$ |
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$1,561,446 |
$1,608,290 |
$1,656,538 |
$1,706,235 |
$1,757,422 |
$1,810,144 |
$1,864,449 |
$1,920,382 |
$1,977,993 |
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(-) Absorption & Turnover Vacancy: |
$ |
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BIWS:
Not counting anything here because the tenant moves in as of January 1 of this year.
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(351,484) |
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(-) Concessions & Free Rent: |
$ |
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(520,482) |
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(410,065) |
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(-) Tenant Improvements (TIs): |
$ |
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(312,289) |
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(249,831) |
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(-) Leasing Commissions (LCs): |
$ |
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(195,975) |
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(167,947) |
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(+) Expense Reimbursements: |
$ |
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489,253 |
503,931 |
519,049 |
534,620 |
440,527 |
567,179 |
584,194 |
601,720 |
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Tenant #2 - Triple Net (NNN) Lease: |
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% Rentable Square Feet Occupied: |
% |
30.0% |
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Rentable Square Feet Occupied: |
sq. ft. |
96,089 sq. ft. |
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Lease Start Date: |
Date |
2019-12-31 |
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Lease Expiration Date: |
Date |
2023-12-31 |
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Baseline Rent per Square Foot: |
$ / sq. ft. / Yr |
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$8.00 |
$8.24 |
$8.49 |
$8.74 |
$9.00 |
$9.27 |
$9.55 |
$9.84 |
$10.13 |
$10.44 |
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Rental Growth Rate: |
% |
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3.0% |
3.0% |
3.0% |
3.0% |
3.0% |
3.0% |
3.0% |
3.0% |
3.0% |
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(+) Base Rental Income: |
$ |
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$768,712 |
$791,773 |
$815,527 |
$839,992 |
$865,192 |
$891,148 |
$917,882 |
$945,419 |
$973,781 |
$1,002,995 |
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(-) Absorption & Turnover Vacancy: |
$ |
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BIWS:
It takes a year to find the tenant, so we're deducting the entire Base Rental Income here.
(768,712) |
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(178,230) |
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(-) Concessions & Free Rent: |
$ |
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- |
(263,924) |
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(207,935) |
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(-) Tenant Improvements (TIs): |
$ |
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- |
(144,134) |
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(115,307) |
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(-) Leasing Commissions (LCs): |
$ |
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(99,375) |
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(85,162) |
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|
|
|
|
|
|
(+) Expense Reimbursements: |
$ |
|
|
BIWS:
No tenant move-in yet, so no expense reimbursements.
- |
232,583 |
239,561 |
246,748 |
254,150 |
209,420 |
269,628 |
277,717 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Annual Capital Costs: |
$ |
|
|
(508,265) |
(243,508) |
- |
- |
(417,778) |
(200,469) |
- |
- |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Replacement Reserve Amount: |
$ |
|
600,000 |
187,824 |
43,288 |
145,229 |
250,228 |
- |
- |
114,735 |
232,913 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Numerical Year: |
Year |
|
2018 |
2019 |
2020 |
2021 |
2022 |
2023 |
2024 |
2025 |
2026 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Construction: |
Operational Years: |
Stabilized: |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Property Pro-Forma: |
|
Units: |
|
FY18 |
FY19 |
FY20 |
FY21 |
FY22 |
FY23 |
FY24 |
FY25 |
FY26 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Revenue: |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
(+) Base Rental Income: |
$ |
|
|
$2,450,270 |
$2,523,778 |
$2,599,491 |
$2,677,476 |
$2,757,800 |
$2,840,534 |
$2,925,750 |
$3,013,523 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
(-) Absorption & Turnover Vacancy: |
$ |
|
|
(768,712) |
- |
- |
- |
(351,484) |
(178,230) |
- |
- |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
(-) Concessions & Free Rent: |
$ |
|
|
(520,482) |
(263,924) |
- |
- |
(410,065) |
(207,935) |
- |
- |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
(+) Expense Reimbursements: |
$ |
|
|
489,253 |
736,514 |
758,610 |
781,368 |
694,677 |
776,598 |
853,822 |
879,436 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Potential Gross Revenue: |
$ |
|
|
1,650,329 |
2,996,367 |
3,358,101 |
3,458,844 |
2,690,928 |
3,230,968 |
3,779,572 |
3,892,959 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
(-) General Vacancy: |
$ |
|
|
(120,111) |
(123,715) |
(127,426) |
(131,249) |
(135,186) |
(139,242) |
(143,419) |
(147,722) |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Effective Gross Income (EGI): |
$ |
|
|
1,530,217 |
2,872,653 |
3,230,675 |
3,327,595 |
2,555,742 |
3,091,726 |
3,636,153 |
3,745,237 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Operating Expenses: |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
(-) Recoverable Expenses: |
$ |
|
|
(752,697) |
(775,278) |
(798,536) |
(822,493) |
(847,167) |
(872,582) |
(898,760) |
(925,723) |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
(-) Management Fee: |
$ |
|
|
(45,907) |
(86,180) |
(96,920) |
(99,828) |
(76,672) |
(92,752) |
(109,085) |
(112,357) |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
(-) CapEx, TI, and LC Reserves: |
$ |
|
|
(96,089) |
(98,972) |
(101,941) |
(104,999) |
(108,149) |
(111,393) |
(114,735) |
(118,177) |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Total Operating Expenses: |
$ |
|
|
(894,693) |
(960,429) |
(997,398) |
(1,027,319) |
(1,031,989) |
(1,076,728) |
(1,122,580) |
(1,156,257) |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Net Operating Income (NOI): |
$ |
|
|
635,525 |
1,912,223 |
2,233,277 |
2,300,275 |
1,523,753 |
2,014,999 |
2,513,573 |
2,588,980 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
NOI Margin: |
% |
|
|
41.5% |
66.6% |
69.1% |
69.1% |
59.6% |
65.2% |
69.1% |
69.1% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
(-) CapEx, TIs, and LCs: |
$ |
|
|
(508,265) |
(243,508) |
- |
- |
(417,778) |
(200,469) |
- |
- |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
(+) Capital Costs Paid from Reserves: |
$ |
|
|
508,265 |
243,508 |
- |
- |
358,377 |
111,393 |
- |
- |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Adjusted Net Operating Income: |
$ |
|
|
635,525 |
1,912,223 |
2,233,277 |
2,300,275 |
1,464,352 |
1,925,923 |
2,513,573 |
2,588,980 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Adjusted NOI Margin: |
% |
|
|
41.5% |
66.6% |
69.1% |
69.1% |
57.3% |
62.3% |
69.1% |
69.1% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
(-) Interest Expense on Permanent Loan: |
$ |
|
|
(748,978) |
(737,212) |
(724,887) |
(711,977) |
(698,453) |
(684,287) |
(669,448) |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
(-) Permanent Loan Principal Repayment: |
$ |
|
|
(247,706) |
(259,472) |
(271,797) |
(284,707) |
(298,231) |
(312,397) |
(327,236) |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Cash Flow to Equity Investors: |
$ |
|
|
(361,159) |
915,539 |
1,236,593 |
1,303,591 |
467,667 |
929,239 |
1,516,889 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Ending Permanent Loan Balance: |
$ |
|
15,767,960 |
15,520,254 |
15,260,782 |
14,988,985 |
14,704,277 |
14,406,046 |
14,093,649 |
13,766,414 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Debt Yield: |
% |
|
|
4.0% |
12.1% |
14.2% |
14.6% |
9.7% |
12.8% |
15.9% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Interest Coverage Ratio - NOI: |
x |
|
|
0.85 x |
2.59 x |
3.08 x |
3.23 x |
2.18 x |
2.94 x |
3.75 x |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Interest Coverage Ratio - Adjusted NOI: |
x |
|
|
0.85 x |
2.59 x |
3.08 x |
3.23 x |
2.10 x |
2.81 x |
3.75 x |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Debt Service Coverage Ratio (DSCR) - NOI: |
x |
|
|
0.64 x |
1.92 x |
2.24 x |
2.31 x |
1.53 x |
2.02 x |
2.52 x |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Debt Service Coverage Ratio (DSCR) - Adj. NOI: |
x |
|
|
0.64 x |
1.92 x |
2.24 x |
2.31 x |
1.47 x |
1.93 x |
2.52 x |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Construction: |
Operational Years: |
Stabilized: |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Returns to All Equity Investors: |
|
Units: |
|
FY18 |
FY19 |
FY20 |
FY21 |
FY22 |
FY23 |
FY24 |
FY25 |
FY26 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Value of Excess Land: |
$ |
$7,182,000 |
$7,397,460 |
$7,619,384 |
$7,847,965 |
$8,083,404 |
$8,325,906 |
$8,575,684 |
$8,832,954 |
$9,097,943 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Annual Growth Rate in Land Value: |
% |
|
3.0% |
3.0% |
3.0% |
3.0% |
3.0% |
3.0% |
3.0% |
3.0% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Forward NOI: |
$ |
|
|
1,912,223 |
2,233,277 |
2,300,275 |
1,523,753 |
2,014,999 |
2,513,573 |
2,588,980 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Applicable Cap Rate: |
% |
|
|
5.80% |
5.70% |
5.60% |
5.50% |
5.60% |
5.70% |
5.75% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Implied Property Value: |
$ |
|
|
32,969,370 |
39,180,300 |
41,076,347 |
27,704,600 |
35,982,120 |
44,097,773 |
45,025,743 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
(-) Equity Draws: |
$ |
|
(15,028,860) |
BIWS:
No equity draws after construction finishes.
- |
- |
- |
- |
- |
- |
- |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
(+) Permanent Loan Issued: |
$ |
|
15,767,960 |
BIWS:
Only happens once.
- |
- |
- |
- |
- |
- |
- |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
(-) Permanent Loan Financing Fees: |
$ |
|
(157,680) |
BIWS:
Only happens once.
- |
- |
- |
- |
- |
- |
- |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
(-) Construction Loan Refinanced: |
$ |
|
(15,583,300) |
BIWS:
Only happens once.
- |
- |
- |
- |
- |
- |
- |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
(+) Cash Flow to Equity Investors: |
$ |
|
- |
(361,159) |
915,539 |
1,236,593 |
1,303,591 |
467,667 |
929,239 |
1,516,889 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
(+) Proceeds from Sale of Excess Land: |
$ |
|
- |
- |
- |
- |
8,325,906 |
- |
- |
- |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
(+) Proceeds from Sale of Property: |
$ |
|
- |
- |
- |
- |
- |
- |
- |
45,025,743 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
(-) Selling Costs: |
$ |
|
- |
- |
- |
- |
- |
- |
- |
(675,386) |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
(-) Repayment of Permanent Loan: |
$ |
|
- |
- |
- |
- |
- |
- |
- |
(13,766,414) |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
(-) Prepayment Penalty on Permanent Loan: |
$ |
|
- |
- |
- |
- |
- |
- |
- |
(137,664) |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Total Cash Flows to Equity Investors: |
$ |
|
(15,001,880) |
(361,159) |
915,539 |
1,236,593 |
9,629,498 |
467,667 |
929,239 |
31,963,169 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Internal Rate of Return (IRR): |
% |
|
20.2% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Total Returns to Equity: |
$ |
|
44,807,525 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Invested Equity: |
$ |
|
15,028,860 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Cash-on-Cash Multiple: |
x |
|
3.0 x |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Annual Yield on Initial Investment: |
% |
|
|
(2.4%) |
6.1% |
8.2% |
64.1% |
3.1% |
6.2% |
212.7% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Construction: |
Operational Years: |
Stabilized: |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Waterfall Returns Schedule: |
|
Units: |
|
FY18 |
FY19 |
FY20 |
FY21 |
FY22 |
FY23 |
FY24 |
FY25 |
FY26 |
|
Lesson Notes: |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Tier 1 IRR - Up to 10.0%: |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
The setup is very similar to what we saw in the last case study - calculate how much we "should" earn in a given year based on the IRR hurdle |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Leveraged IRR to All Equity Investors: |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
we're at, such as 10% in Level 1. Then, "repay" however much we can based on the Cash Flow to Equity Investors. |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Beginning Balance: |
|
|
|
(15,001,880) |
(16,863,228) |
(17,634,011) |
(18,160,819) |
(10,347,404) |
(10,914,477) |
(11,076,685) |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Returns Accrual: |
10.0% |
|
|
(1,500,188) |
(1,686,323) |
(1,763,401) |
(1,816,082) |
(1,034,740) |
(1,091,448) |
(1,107,668) |
|
|
And we keep splitting this differently depending on the level we're in - 90/10 initially, then 80/20, and then 70/30. |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Repayment: |
100.0% |
|
|
(361,159) |
915,539 |
1,236,593 |
9,629,498 |
467,667 |
929,239 |
12,184,353 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Ending Balance: |
|
|
(15,001,880) |
(16,863,228) |
(17,634,011) |
(18,160,819) |
(10,347,404) |
(10,914,477) |
(11,076,685) |
- |
|
|
DIFFERENCES: We now have multiple tiers, and we're looking at the project-level IRR - not the leveraged IRR to just the LPs! There's no "right" or |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
"wrong" way to set this up, just different ways. We're looking at a variation here. |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Limited Partners (LPs): |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Beginning Balance: |
|
|
|
(13,501,692) |
(15,176,905) |
(15,870,610) |
(16,344,737) |
(9,312,663) |
(9,823,029) |
(9,969,016) |
|
|
Also, you must be VERY careful with the Initial Equity Contributed. Not just equal to the Equity Draws! |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Returns Accrual: |
10.0% |
|
|
(1,350,169) |
(1,517,691) |
(1,587,061) |
(1,634,474) |
(931,266) |
(982,303) |
(996,902) |
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Repayment: |
90.0% |
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(325,044) |
823,985 |
1,112,934 |
8,666,548 |
420,901 |
836,315 |
10,965,918 |
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The issue is that we assume a Construction Loan refinancing and Permanent Loan at the end of the Construction Year, so that changes things and |
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Ending Balance: |
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(13,501,692) |
(15,176,905) |
(15,870,610) |
(16,344,737) |
(9,312,663) |
(9,823,029) |
(9,969,016) |
- |
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boosts the proceeds to equity investors. |
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Developer: |
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So… when we look at the "Ending Balance," we need to factor that in. Assume a proportional 90/10 split since we have no other information. |
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Beginning Balance: |
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|
(1,500,188) |
(1,686,323) |
(1,763,401) |
(1,816,082) |
(1,034,740) |
(1,091,448) |
(1,107,668) |
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Returns Accrual: |
10.0% |
|
|
(150,019) |
(168,632) |
(176,340) |
(181,608) |
(103,474) |
(109,145) |
(110,767) |
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Cash Flow Available for Tier 2 Distribution: Cash Flow to Equity Investors (overall) minus Total Repayment in this tier. |
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Repayment: |
10.0% |
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|
(36,116) |
91,554 |
123,659 |
962,950 |
46,767 |
92,924 |
1,218,435 |
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Ending Balance: |
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(1,500,188) |
(1,686,323) |
(1,763,401) |
(1,816,082) |
(1,034,740) |
(1,091,448) |
(1,107,668) |
- |
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Tier 2 is largely the same - we just calculate everything based on a 20% IRR instead. Don't bother to split the cash flows up at this stage since |
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it's easier just to calculate what the cash flows "should be" at this 20% IRR level first. |
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Cash Flow Available for Tier 2 Distribution: |
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- |
- |
- |
- |
- |
- |
19,778,815 |
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Cash Flow Available for Tier 3 Distribution: Cash Flow to Equity Investors (overall) minus Total Repayment in this tier. Do NOT have to subtract |
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Tier 2 IRR - Up to 20.0%: |
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the Tier 1 Distributions since Tier 2 included everything up to a 20% IRR. |
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Leveraged IRR to All Equity Investors: |
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Beginning Balance: |
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|
(15,001,880) |
(18,363,416) |
(21,120,560) |
(24,108,079) |
(19,300,197) |
(22,692,569) |
(26,301,843) |
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Waterfall Returns Distributions by Investor Group and IRR Tier: The only tricky part here is that we must get only the cash flows that correspond |
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Returns Accrual: |
20.0% |
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(3,000,376) |
(3,672,683) |
(4,224,112) |
(4,821,616) |
(3,860,039) |
(4,538,514) |
(5,260,369) |
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to the Tier 2 IRR - so we take the Tier 3 Availability and subtract the Tier 2 Availability, and then multiply by the split percentage. |
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Repayment: |
100.0% |
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(361,159) |
915,539 |
1,236,593 |
9,629,498 |
467,667 |
929,239 |
31,562,212 |
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Ending Balance: |
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(15,001,880) |
(18,363,416) |
(21,120,560) |
(24,108,079) |
(19,300,197) |
(22,692,569) |
(26,301,843) |
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Tier 1 and Tier 3 are easy and exactly what you'd expect. |
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Limited Partners (LPs): |
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Returns Analysis by Investor Group: Also fairly straightforward - just add together everything in the area above, and use the IRR function, or |
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Beginning Balance: |
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(13,501,692) |
(16,490,958) |
(19,056,719) |
(21,878,788) |
(18,550,947) |
(21,887,003) |
(25,521,012) |
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calculate the multiple(s) manually, or calculate the annual yield. |
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Returns Accrual: |
20.0% |
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|
(2,700,338) |
(3,298,192) |
(3,811,344) |
(4,375,758) |
(3,710,189) |
(4,377,401) |
(5,104,202) |
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Repayment: |
80.0% |
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(288,928) |
732,431 |
989,274 |
7,703,598 |
374,134 |
743,391 |
25,570,535 |
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Case Study Answers: |
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Ending Balance: |
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(13,501,692) |
(16,490,958) |
(19,056,719) |
(21,878,788) |
(18,550,947) |
(21,887,003) |
(25,521,012) |
(5,054,679) |
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No, we would not do the deal with the current terms because the LP IRR is below 20%, and the excess land assumption in the beginning makes no |
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Developer: |
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sense to us. Issues with the Permanent Loan refinancing, waterfall structure, and lack of data on other scenario as well. |
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Beginning Balance: |
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|
(1,500,188) |
(1,872,458) |
(2,063,841) |
(2,229,291) |
(749,249) |
(805,566) |
(780,831) |
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Returns Accrual: |
20.0% |
|
|
(300,038) |
(374,492) |
(412,768) |
(445,858) |
(149,850) |
(161,113) |
(156,166) |
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Biggest issue with the Permanent Loan is Year 1 - we recommend pushing back the refinancing a year so that the property has truly "stabilized." |
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Repayment: |
20.0% |
|
|
(72,232) |
183,108 |
247,319 |
1,925,900 |
93,533 |
185,848 |
936,997 |
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Construction Loan repayment would be higher, but we would also be able to use a bigger Permanent Loan balance and possibly even push for |
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Ending Balance: |
|
|
(1,500,188) |
(1,872,458) |
(2,063,841) |
(2,229,291) |
(749,249) |
(805,566) |
(780,831) |
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a higher LTV with different amortization/interest assumptions. |
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Cash Flow Available for Tier 3 Distribution: |
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- |
- |
- |
- |
- |
- |
400,957 |
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Approximate IRRs - You can calculate both of these in Excel with XIRR or IRR. Different from the interest rates due to compounding and loan |
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fees for the Construction Loan, and Loan Fees/Prepayment Penalty/Early Repayment for the Permanent Loan. |
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Waterfall Returns Distributions by Investor Group and IRR Tier: |
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Much bigger difference for the Construction Loan, which reflects reality - higher risk/potential reward and much shorter time frame. |
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Tier 1 IRR - Up to 10.0%: |
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Limited Partners (LPs): |
90.0% |
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(325,044) |
823,985 |
1,112,934 |
8,666,548 |
420,901 |
836,315 |
10,965,918 |
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Lender would stress test this very heavily and look at cases where the Downtime between tenants goes up to 12 months, where the rent increases |
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Developers: |
10.0% |
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(36,116) |
91,554 |
123,659 |
962,950 |
46,767 |
92,924 |
1,218,435 |
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are negative or much lower, where the renewal probabilities are lower, etc., and see just how bad things get under those assumptions. |
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Tier 2 IRR - Up to 20.0%: |
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"Cash Flow Armageddon" - Worst-case scenario analysis. Won't necessarily say "no" if the numbers look terrible in this case, but might change the |
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Limited Partners (LPs): |
80.0% |
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- |
- |
- |
- |
- |
- |
15,502,287 |
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terms of the loan. |
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Developers: |
20.0% |
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- |
- |
- |
- |
- |
- |
3,875,572 |
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Operating assumptions seem realistic based on the market figures provided in the document - rent, free rent/TIs, and so on. But we question the value |
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Tier 3 IRR - 20.0% or Above: |
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of the excess land - why buy it if we're not going ot use it? We're also a bit skeptical of the Cap Rate trend and the General Vacancy number since 5% |
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Limited Partners (LPs): |
70.0% |
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- |
- |
- |
- |
- |
- |
280,670 |
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is very low, even in Calgary. We also can't assess the construction costs, operating expenses, or property taxes. |
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Developers: |
30.0% |
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- |
- |
- |
- |
- |
- |
120,287 |
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More time and resources - sensitivities and scenarios. What happens when the Cap Rate changes by 1-2% in absolute terms? What about when the |
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Returns Analysis by Investor Group: |
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Downtime Months change or when the TIs/LCs/rent changes? What happens if it takes more or less time to find tenants? |
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Limited Partners (LP) - Leveraged Returns: |
$ |
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(13,501,692) |
(325,044) |
823,985 |
1,112,934 |
8,666,548 |
420,901 |
836,315 |
26,748,875 |
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Internal Rate of Return (IRR): |
% |
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19.3% |
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Cash-on-Cash Multiple: |
x |
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2.8 x |
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Annual Yield on Initial Investment: |
% |
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(2.4%) |
6.1% |
8.2% |
64.2% |
3.1% |
6.2% |
198.1% |
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Developers - Leveraged Returns: |
$ |
|
(1,500,188) |
(36,116) |
91,554 |
123,659 |
962,950 |
46,767 |
92,924 |
5,214,294 |
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Internal Rate of Return (IRR): |
% |
|
26.6% |
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Cash-on-Cash Multiple: |
x |
|
4.3 x |
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Annual Yield on Initial Investment: |
% |
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(2.4%) |
6.1% |
8.2% |
64.2% |
3.1% |
6.2% |
347.6% |
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