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rff report terrestrial ecosystem adaptation steven w running and l scott mills adaptation an initiative of the climate policy program at rff june 2009 table of contents introduction 1 climatic ...

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                                              RFF REPORT 
            Terrestrial Ecosystem 
            Adaptation 
             
             
            Steven W. Running and L. Scott Mills 
             
             
             
            ADAPTATION | AN INITIATIVE OF THE CLIMATE POLICY PROGRAM AT RFF 
            JUNE 2009 
             
           
          Table of Contents 
           
          Introduction ................................................................................................................................................................ 1 
           Climatic Means versus Extremes .................................................................................................................. 3 
          Recent Historical Climate Trends and Variability ...................................................................................... 4 
           Vegetation Response and Phenology .......................................................................................................... 6 
           Wildfire and Disturbance ................................................................................................................................. 9 
          Adaptation to Climate Change in Wild Populations ............................................................................... 11 
           Adaptation in Place via Plasticity and/or Evolution ......................................................................... 12 
           Adaptation via Movement and Range Shifts ......................................................................................... 15 
           The Interaction of Climate Change with Other Human‐Caused Stressors ............................... 16 
          Expected Future Ecosystem Trends .............................................................................................................. 17 
           Future Climate Trends ................................................................................................................................... 17 
           Species Responses Based on Focal Animal Species ........................................................................... 19 
          Adaptation Options ............................................................................................................................................... 23 
           Water Management ......................................................................................................................................... 23 
           Vegetation Management ................................................................................................................................ 24 
           Manage for Resilience ..................................................................................................................................... 25 
           Facilitate Connectivity and Consider Assisted Colonization ......................................................... 25 
           Directed Evolution of Native Animals ..................................................................................................... 26 
          References ................................................................................................................................................................ 27 
           
                                                                     2
            
                          Terrestrial Ecosystem Adaptation 
                                                                 *
                            Steven W. Running and L. Scott Mills  
           Introduction 
              n this report, we evaluate adaptation issues for natural ecosystems. We will specifically focus on 
           Ithe interactions with the abiotic environment of plants and animals, along with other organisms 
              with which they interact (e.g., disease‐causing bacteria and viruses). We further limit ourselves 
           to natural ecosystems in which the predominant vegetation has developed without having been 
           planted, irrigated, or fertilized. Most of the natural lands in the United States are managed by 
           federal or state governments. Agricultural lands—including range grazing lands —are dealt with in 
           a related adaptation report. This will evaluate the potential magnitudes and challenges facing 
           terrestrial ecosystems in the United States in adapting to changing climate over the next 30–50 
           years. Our report will not address attribution or mitigation of climate change, as these topics have 
           been dealt with in many other forums. We will begin with a brief summary of the current trajectory 
           of the changing climate in the United States, including both temporal and spatial patterns. We will 
           then relate these trends to ecosystem impacts and vulnerabilities.  
              We consider adaptation in the broad sense to include any means by which organisms 
           successfully confront a perturbation such as climate change. This includes both local adaptation in 
           place—either through plastic responses or through evolutionary changes—as well as changes in 
           movements within or outside of the current geographic range. Some species (often invasive and 
           disease species) will adapt spectacularly. By contrast, those unable to adapt will experience 
           decreased average mean fitness, translating into population decline, decreased persistence, and 
           changed community and ecosystem structure (Figure 1). 
              After considering ecological adaptation mechanisms, it becomes possible to consider potential 
           management options to enhance adaptation. We do not make recommendations of specific 
           adaptation activities at this point; rather, we suggest alternatives to begin the discussion. 
                                                                   
           * Department of Ecosystem Sciences, College of Forestry and Conservation, University of Montana, Missoula, MT. 
           swr@ntsg.umt.edu; scott.mills@cfc.umt.edu. This report was prepared for the Resources for the Future project on adaptation 
           to climate change. For more information, see www.rff.org/adaptation 
                        RUNNING AND MILLS                                        1
           
          Figure 1. Response of Biotic Communities as Climate Change Affects Individual Species (which adapt in 
            place, move, or decline toward extinction), Changes in Species Interactions, and Ultimately the 
                      Structure and Composition of Communities and Ecosystems 
                                                                
          Note: Differential adaptation among species leads inexorably to changes in community and ecosystem 
          structure 
           
           
                    RUNNING AND MILLS                              2
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...Rff report terrestrial ecosystem adaptation steven w running and l scott mills an initiative of the climate policy program at june table contents introduction climatic means versus extremes recent historical trends variability vegetation response phenology wildfire disturbance to change in wild populations place via plasticity or evolution movement range shifts interaction with other humancaused stressors expected future species responses based on focal animal options water management manage for resilience facilitate connectivity consider assisted colonization directed native animals references n this we evaluate issues natural ecosystems will specifically focus ithe interactions abiotic environment plants along organisms which they interact e g diseasecausing bacteria viruses further limit ourselves predominant has developed without having been planted irrigated fertilized most lands united states are managed by federal state governments agricultural including grazing dealt a related ...

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