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picture1_Analysis Ppt 75735 | 5 Uncert


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File: Analysis Ppt 75735 | 5 Uncert
outline different types of uncertainty types of sensitivity analysis ca sensitivity cea sensitivity bca sensitivity 2 uncertainty 1 parameter uncertainty reflected in standard errors of estimates 2 structural uncertainty econometric ...

icon picture PPTX Filetype Power Point PPTX | Posted on 02 Sep 2022 | 3 years ago
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                        Outline
      Different types of uncertainty
      Types of sensitivity analysis
      CA sensitivity
      CEA sensitivity
      BCA sensitivity
                              2
                       Uncertainty
     1. Parameter uncertainty
        Reflected in standard errors of estimates
     2. Structural uncertainty
        Econometric model specification
        Mechanisms
     3. Variability
        Random chance: standard deviations
     4. Heterogeneity 
        Costs will differ across groups of students
                                    3
                  Idea of Sensitivity 
                              Analysis
      Essential to test the importance of your assumptions
      Techniques:
           Depend on purpose
           Addressing uncertainty varies for CA, CEA, BCA
           Standard techniques mostly developed for BCA, not CA or CEA
           Structure of data
       Guidance:
           With understanding of type of uncertainty
           With hypothesis test/goal in mind (overturn conclusion? scale-
            up?)
           Principle of conservativeness
                                        58
              Sensitivity Analysis 
                        Techniques
     Partial sensitivity analysis
        Vary one important parameter at a time holding all else equal
        Pick the largest in magnitude, most uncertain, most controversial
     Breakeven analysis
        Find value where NPV=0 (NPV benefits = NPV costs)
        Special Case with Internal Rate of Return: Breakeven discount rate
     Extreme case (best-worst case) analysis 
        Vary parameters to get best/worst outcomes
     Monte Carlo simulations
        Use distribution of evidence to create a distribution of NPVs
                                   59
                    Basic Example
     Read 180: For struggling readers G1-12 to improve 
       decoding, fluency, and comprehension skills; 90-
       minutes daily of whole-group, small-group and 
       individualized instruction + videos + feedback; class 
       size 15
     Delivered at 3 sites
     Significant variation in costs per site (Levin et al., 
       2007)
                                   6
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...Outline different types of uncertainty sensitivity analysis ca cea bca parameter reflected in standard errors estimates structural econometric model specification mechanisms variability random chance deviations heterogeneity costs will differ across groups students idea essential to test the importance your assumptions techniques depend on purpose addressing varies for mostly developed not or structure data guidance with understanding type hypothesis goal mind overturn conclusion scale up principle conservativeness partial vary one important at a time holding all else equal pick largest magnitude most uncertain controversial breakeven find value where npv benefits special case internal rate return discount extreme best worst parameters get outcomes monte carlo simulations use distribution evidence create npvs basic example read struggling readers g improve decoding fluency and comprehension skills minutes daily whole group small individualized instruction videos feedback class size del...

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